Fighter Profiles:
Robot Rationale:
A tale as old as time: the BJJ tactician against the wizened striker. While this is clearly the setup, one shouldn’t look passed Gilbert Burns skill on the ground. Both his advancing offense and advancing defense are in the top 50% of welterweights – but to focus on grappling, we think, is to miss the point. Taking a closer look at the graph above, the top factors the model is focused on for this fight is the fact that Gunnar Nelson attempts and lands a great deal less significant strikes then Burns. Next, on the defensive side of things, Gunnar gets crushed on his feet (in comparison) – absorbing almost 10 more significant strikes per round historically. Burns is the (-130) favorite, and we think he’s worth the cost.