Fight Night talk swirls around Covid-19, fanless arenas, and the use of a smaller Octagon. We don’t think the smaller cage will impact the fights any more than having no fan noise.
But let’s see what our algorithms predict. Here’s how to read the charts.
Our full model is really a combination (or ensemble) of four models:
- Random Forest
- Boosted Trees
- Nearest Neighbors
- Logistic Regression
Each makes a separate prediction and then they are all combined in the ensemble model. The probability we give fighter 1 of winning is reported in the graphs. So if one of the charts has an ensemble probability of 60% it gives fighter 1 a 60% chance of winning, if the ensemble probability is 40% it gives fighter 2 a 60% chance of winning. The prediction is always going to be 1 or 0. 1 if the ensemble model picks fighter 1, 0 if the ensemble model picks fighter 2.
Fighter 1: Woodley - Fighter 2: Burns
The only bright spot for Woodley in his title loss to Usman was his toughness. He got rocked early and was never the same. Can he rebound to his former greatness versus a hungry #6 ranked Gilbert Burns? Maybe Woodley just got beat by the better man back in March of 2019. Or, he is on a steep decline and Burns exploits that in Vegas. Burns has the skills and momentum with a 7-1 record since 2017. Tyron Woodly, 19-4-1, is more comfortable in deeper waters though. The former champ still has respect, ranked #1 in his division. That ranking could tumble drastically should Gilbert Burns smash Woodley just as Usman did. Our closest call of the card – Woodley wins. (FYI – One of our models showed Burns at a 66 percent shot at winning)
Fighter 1: Ivanov - Fighter 2: Sakai
Ivanov comes in off a big upset of #5 heavyweight Derrick Lewis, and his record is 18-3-0. Both men are ranked just outside the top 10. Sakai KO’d his last opponent in a mere 59 seconds. His KO rate is 79 percent and has just one loss. Sakai lands a ton but receives heavy doses of significant strikes. Our pick – the heavy-handed Sakai.
Fighter 1: Quarantillo - Fighter 2: Carlyle
Quarantillo is 13-2-0, and his last fight saw him triangle Jacob Kilburn for a big win. That submission padded his 38 percent average, which matches his KO rate. If you saw Carlyle’s vicious finish over Aalon Cruz in February, you know he is all business! At 9-1-0, Carlyle is a powerful striker with a mean streak. This featherweight battle could be one of the best fights of the night. Winner? Spike Carlyle with a 63 percent chance.
Fighter 1: Roberts - Fighter 2: Weaver
If scary neck tattoos count then Weaver wins easily. However, Roberts is 9-1-0 and not looking to get loss number two. This lightweight bout features two Americans in their 20s. Both were winners in their last outing, Roberts with a decision, and Weaver winning via disqualification. Roberts has a better shot at a KO or submission. A longer bout could be more to Weaver’s liking as 64 percent of his wins came via decision. Key factor – Weaver takes twice as much damage as Roberts. Lionchalk is going with Roberts.
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